Using our standard 90,000 kernel per bushel equation to figure yields, our 2022 crop tour had an estimated 195.2 bushel yield per acre.

The tour average of rows was 16.3 were only slightly behind the last few years’ averages of 16.43. Our tours found shorter ear lengths of 33.4 kernel average, attributed to heat and stressors after pollination due to tip back. However, we have a new tour record of 32.3k ears/acre.

Early-planting was disrupted by wetter weather, however once planters really started up the first part of May, conditions were prime for excellent stands and we found very few, if any, wet holes in the fields. 

Due to the excellent plant health, most ears sampled showed relatively large kernels and potential for continued weight gain and has led us to favor a kernel count closer to 80,000 per bushel, which would push our tour average to 219.7. Last year’s tour estimated 80,000 kernels per bushel for an adjusted yield of 223.7, however the onset of tar spot and the quickly deteriorated crop conditions, overstated final yield which was likely more in the mid-210s. Looking back at last year, an 85k kernel count would have led to a more fitting 210.5 tour average.

Using some regression analysis from prior years, our 195 crop tour estimate gives us a forecasted Tazewell county yield of 211 and a state yield of 192 bushels per acre, with an adjustment of +/- 11 bpa. However, if we adjust to the 80k kernel count, our forecasted Tazewell county yield is bumped to 236 and the state jumps up to 212.

There was no evidence of any samples that showed maturity closer to black layering, which puts this crop is about two to three weeks away from full maturity. The coming forecast of mid-80s for high temperatures, low-60s for overnight lows and scattered rain events should allow ears to continue to add weight, another reason we're favoring a lower kernel count per bushel.