Using our standard 90,000 kernel per bushel equation to figure yields, our 2021 crop tour had an estimated 198.8 bushel yield per acre.

The tour average of rows was 16.7, above the last 5 years’ averages of 16.44. With a population up near our records, the average ear length (33.7) was a bit lower than the rolling 5-year average of 33.96, leading to our second-highest tour yield.

Populations were again a hot-topic heading into the tour and consensus of tour participants might have leaned towards record populations, but were outdone by 2016 and 2019 populations (31.9 each).

Again, most ears sampled showed relatively large kernels and has led us to favor a kernel count closer to 80,000 per bushel, which pushes our tour average to 223.7. Last year’s tour estimated 80,000 kernels per bushel for an adjusted yield of 207.1.

Our regression model from Advance Trading, Inc in Bloomington, IL approximates Illinois state and Tazewell county yield estimates over the past few years, and using the 90,000 kernel count they have projections of 198 for the state and 215 for the county. However, using the 80,000 kernel count that we are favoring would produce a state yield of 220 and a county yield of 241. The USDA is currently holding a state yield of 214. Advance's model last year had projections for Tazewell county at 197 versus actual NASS data of 196.9 using 90,000 kernels.

Looking at ear development, this crop is about a little more than two weeks away from full maturity, with the majority of the corn in dent stage, but not a lot of ears sampled were done with milk. The forecast should allow ears to continue to add weight, another reason we're favoring a lower kernel count per bushel.