Wednesday, February 10th

Current market: corn down 2, beans up 1

Ms. Yellen sent her semi-annual notes to Congress and stressed that she still expects interest rates to rise, but it's all predicated on the economy's financial conditions and its ability to overcome global growth concerns; DJIA futures are up 108, S&P up nearly 1%. Asia closed weaker overnight, but futures have responded favorably to the chair(wo)man's remarks just like here in the US; Europe is higher at midday. After turning in a $27-handle on crude yesterday, oil is looking to rebound with financial futures up today, currently showing small gains. And the US$ has bounced a touch of its 2016 lows it put in yesterday, currently at 96.32 with its next level of support near 94.00.

POTUS is looking to reduce crop insurance premium subsidies in his new proposed budget, and Ag Sec Vilsack said currently gov't subsidizes about 60 percent of the premium and would be fairer if number sat closer to 50 percent. "Bernie" and "The Donald" were both winners in last night's New Hampshire primary.

There was an export sale announced this morning of 243 kmt to Japan for next marketing year. Yesterday's report will still be digested over coming days, but it seems there is a consensus that there could still be some revisions to exports still, especially in corn. With ethanol margins hovering near half of what they were last year, demand going forward will remain largely dependent on prices at pump remaining low, encouraging extra consumer gasoline purchases. Argentina's bean production was raised yesterday 1.5 MMT, now at 58.5 MMT, and Brazil remained unchanged at 100 MMT. US beans will still face a lot of pressure as those beans make their way into export markets, and yesterday's report showed a decrease in meal exports (crush demand for beans) as we'll face extra competition from Argentina and their meal exports.

Disclaimer: This commentary does not represent the views of Tremont Cooperative Grain Company, but rather one author's opinions. Data used in this commentary is taken from sources believed to be accurate, and is intended for informational purposes only and should not be solely used to conduct any type of trading strategy. For more information, please contact Tremont Cooperative Grain Company at 309-925-4981, or email info@tremont.coop.

Posted on Feb 10 at 15:00